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Click here to download your copy of Phil's Value Investing Cheat Sheet: Phil and Danielle are taking a break from talking about Google's finances to. Hosted by Tano Santos, the David L. and Elsie M. Be sure to subscribe on Apple, Google, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Drop us a line at. Miller recently did a talk a Google where his discusses his book. It's a great presentation for all value investors. FOREX DAY TRADING PATTERNS IN AFRO
Recurring AMA-style episodes give listeners a chance to ask any financial questions that are on their minds and to get personalized advice from Orman. The College Investor Audio Show from Robert Farrington Release day: Three episodes a week, released on different days Episode duration: 7 to 8 minutes Best for: College students Where to find it: Apple Podcasts , Google Podcasts , Spotify Self-proclaimed millennial money expert Robert Farrington helps young investors get up to speed on investing, generating wealth via side hustles and paying off student loans.
The underminute audio episodes cover single topics including cryptocurrencies, types of stocks and college tuition. Hosts Mandi Woodruff and Tiffany Aliche offer judgment-free advice on everything from saving and investing to savvy career moves. The duo have a way of making finance conversations funny while also being honest and uplifting for their core audience. Give it a listen if your eyes glaze over at some of the other top investing podcast picks.
Town learned the rules of investing when he was a river guide living hand to mouth. His stock market podcast, InvestED —the ED symbolizes the education in investing you'll get if you listen—promises to teach stock market investors how to invest while staying true to their values.
This is our best stock market podcasts pick for investors who want to learn how it all works while keeping up with market trends and forces. MF: Written five, edited two and I am sad to say — you are actually the first person to ever hear this — I am almost done with a new one. Every time I write one, I swear on anything that I will never do another book again. But here we are. It is a labour of love — but we have got five.
JTR: Can we have a snapshot of the topic of the new book? MF: Yeah. One of the topics we spend a lot of time with is the struggle of the income and wealth gap all around the world. I talk a lot about it in the US and trying to think how to alleviate that. Or they want to bring the bottom up. And I think you can do both through a lot of ideas and policy — and we wrote a blog post called How to Narrow the Wealth and Income Gap. But, from my tiny corner of the world, one of the ways I want to do it is to try to help everyone become an investor — everyone on the planet.
And the huge takeaway from that is — you just have to be an owner. We see this play out over generations where this power of compounding But the challenge is always getting people started and so the book we are putting together And we are trying to meet people where they are. In this case, we are demonstrating how a lot of celebrities and athletes made real money — so Michael Jordan but also Rihanna, George Clooney But then also a lot of regular Joes — on how they made money just by saving and investing.
Anyway, it will hopefully be a fun book and be out sometime in , I imagine! But we are, I promise, trying to sabbatical this summer and get that done. JTR: I have just realised I started asking a lot of questions about your podcast and your books but I did not give you the opportunity to introduce yourself. So, for those who do not know you, who is Meb Faber?
MF: Yeah, so my day job is in the investing world — I am a quant. They are quant-ish, which just means they are rules based but they focus on very niche strategies to very broad strategies. I am a fairly poor surfer and a great skier — and, like you said, put out a lot of content and try my best to behave on Twitter and elsewhere.
MF: Man, there are even a few more stops. I was actually a Colorado native, went to University in Virginia — so you caught that — I was actually an engineer, a biomedical guy, and graduated at the peak of my favourite investing bubble, the internet bubble in And that was my background and my hobby somewhat became my career. And then kept gravitating more and more towards the quantitative side of the business and further away from biotech.
I started Cambria, I believe, in , started launching ETFs in and here we are in — still surviving. So we are still here. He is someone people tend not to refer to that much in the industry because he is not that well known outside of value investing circles but I am a huge fan of Seth Klarman. He is the reason why I became a deep value investor in the first place — and I think you have made reference to him in the past. It is a very odd sort of personality trait Warren Buffett talks about whether you are inoculated at birth with a certain concept.
I am even more of an outlier because one half of my brain is value investing and the other half is trend-following, which means they are often at odds with each other. My favourite is when they sort of overlap but that tends to be pretty rare. We certainly love following Seth — in particular, because of his writings — but I love the value or stock investors where you look at their portfolio and the names are unique. So he is certainly on the Mount Rushmore of value investors. JTR: So this is a podcast that aims to understand how people make decisions under uncertainty — trying to improve ourselves as investors and human beings and to be better over time at making decisions.
So I am going to ask the question — what is the best way for investors to make decisions when faced with so much uncertainty? MF: Well, there will be a day — maybe it will be me, just to tease the host — but I have certainly never heard anyone yet go on CNBC and say, you know what, here is my thesis: these are just certain markets. You know, these certain times — it seems so clear, right?
Like, the default base case is uncertainty. That is the world we live in — not just investing, but everything we deal with on a daily basis — and I think, once we learn to embrace that, it becomes more a question of expectations. So there are two things you can do. You can study a ton of history and that at least gives you a framework to base some decisions around and say, oh, OK, I realise that normal stockmarket returns are extreme, for example.
But if you look back in history, you get an understanding or a framework, with which to think about the world. And so embracing that uncertainty is the norm. But, on top of that, it is not just stocks — you can look at the outliers on every side. And so, if you look at the history of stockmarkets in general Certainly, that has surprised a lot of people but you say, look, the Russian stockmarket closed down in during the Bolshevik Revolution. That was it — it went to zero. But plenty of other markets And that has happened in the US, too.
And then most of my British friends They would just groan and say, man, are you crazy? This is a horrible [situation]. So history giving you this guide of what can happen, I think, serves as a good framework for a guaranteed uncertain future.
Now, it ends up looking a lot like blackjack or any game of probability and statistics, where are there the most likely outcomes? And then be prepared for the outliers on both sides. But it gives you, more than anything, a framework for both what can happen and expectations about what is most likely to happen — and then that leads to portfolio design and how to think about the future.
We end up with a lot more non-consensus views on this topic than many but I think the biggest fractures come when people have expectations that are not met or grounded in reality and something comes along and upsets that. That is when people really, really, really make the bad decisions, which almost always or universally are emotional in nature. JTR: You are a quant investor, as you mentioned at the beginning of our chat — and I think you are actually the first pure quant investor we have had on the show.
So I should ask: how does having a quant mindset help you make better decisions as an investor? Do the quant aspects of your process allow you to block of some the human behaviours that makes us prone to mistakes? A beagle looks totally different than a Great Dane which looks different than a bulldog and so on. And so some quants are super-high-frequency traders but all it means for me to be a quant is to be rules-based and we love to ask investors —and if you are listening to this, you can answer your head or write it down — do you have a written investing plan?
And the vast majority people do not. But it does not have to be complicated. But the reality is, many people do not — even professionals. You talk to a lot of professionals and they put a tonne of time into a buy or sell decision. Is gold cheap? What about inflation? What is the Fed doing? Are US stocks an opportunity? What about commodities? On and on Of course not — you would never buy any of that stuff in the garage. It is the same thing with a portfolio — people have an attachment to something that is totally different once they buy it than prior to owning it.
So having these rules about how to put together an investing portfolio and process is extremely important. Nobody does it but it is a great first step because, when you have environments like you do now, you say, OK, what am I going to do if interest rates I mean, just look at the past 10 years. All these outlier things that happen — if you do not have a basic framework for how to think about a portfolio, it outs you at a huge disadvantage because what happens? So it is not just the downside, by the way — it is also when you have outlier outcomes to the upside.
You have a stock that goes up 10x — what do you do? In many cases, if someone has a stock that doubles, they sell it — oh my god, amazing, I just doubled my money! They are thinking about the vacation they are going on, they are thinking about the car they are going to buy but that 2x is often the first step on the way for a stock to go 5x or 10x or even a bagger — you know, a life-changing amount of wealth.
Most people would sell too soon for reasons they may look back on [and regret] — you know, a good example, of course, is Apple or Amazon. So I think having a very basic written plan JTR: You get asked a lot — or you comment a lot about home-country bias. It is an interesting topic but, when we talk about different biases on this podcast, people have never mentioned it.
So I want to ask you — what is home-country bias, why do most investors suffer from it and what can they do to counter it, especially at times like the ones we are living in? MF: Home-country bias is a very simple concept — that most people invest most of their money in their own stockmarket.
Now, that is a huge active overweight — and maybe you are OK with it — but the reality is, you at least need to be aware of it. Now, there are periods But if you look at the decade prior — from when I graduated university through the financial crisis — the US is one of the worst-performing markets.
Then, before that, you had the US outperform in the s — but, before that, you have to go all the way back to the s. People love to extrapolate the recent history of what is going on into the indefinite future.
You are Colombian — I was down in Bogota years ago, when the stockmarket was ripping and roaring. I gave a speech and I said, look, I love this country — the people are super nice, the food is amazing it is gorgeous But I also gave talks in many places in Eastern Europe, when their countries were super-cheap — and we are finding them again here today in the same situation — and the opposite was true: no-one was interested.
You find these things rinse-repeat over and over again and the reality is There are other countries in the world, like Japan, that have got darn near x. And so you are starting to see people clamour into commodities again — for the first time in forever. Commodities was a very trendy allocation post bubble — all the institutions bought some and then they have all sold it over the past five years because it had 10 years of terrible returns Like, I am a Denver Broncos fan so it would be really hard for me to cheer for the Raiders but, when it comes to investing, you have to diversify globally and also with asset classes — not just stocks but bonds, commodities, real assets — and realise every asset and every country has its moment in the sun and moment in the shade.
JTR: It is interesting what you said about the Colombian market back in because, every time you make a reference on Twitter that X or Y is expensive, it seems people get super-hyped and actively pushing against the argument — actually even offended sometimes. MF: Everyone is always offended on Twitter — that is kind of table stakes for social media, right? But that more than anything, I think, is true.
When people are in an investment that is doing well, no-one wants to be told the party is ending. I think this is very much the case in the US — market cap-weighted. You know, they craziness seems to have peaked last year — last February — but the market cap weight has continued to go up and we will see if it has peaked or not, for this cycle, in the last couple months. But it got to a PE ratio of 40x, which historically has portended the next decade of no returns on a real basis.
So I think that would be my expectation — that you would have no returns in the US stockmarket for the next decade. I think there are opportunities within value and other ideas but the broad market cap weight — if you look at all the coincident indicators and there are like seven. When the trend rolls over, you go from yellow to red light — and here we are now because the trend is finally negative.
We had better define the idea first — but why do you find it so powerful? But what is it? And he goes back to the s — you can do it for sectors, you can do it for countries. You can find a lot of free resources today and we were the first ones, to my knowledge, to do a tracker for 45 countries around the world.
I am of the belief that your valuation metric does not matter. When you have a country that is super-expensive and in a bubble, every valuation metric will say the same thing. And it is my belief with the US market And, on the flipside, when a market is really cheap, it does not matter which one you use — they all say the same thing.
That is my belief. So we use CAPE as a shorthand but, when we published our book a long time ago, we said you could use dividend yield. And then you come up with a darn near similar conclusion, which is you are simply using a metric for value and, historically speaking, if you sort based on any metric of value, it does better than not.
Indian and China had PE ratios in the 40s and 50s and 60s — total bubble territory, totally crazy, higher than the US has ever been — and then they had no returns for a decade. Japan, we mentioned, was the granddaddy — it was the biggest stockmarket in the world at that time, not some backwater economy. And it is still one of the top economies in the world. In the s, it got to a year PE ratio of almost x — ad it has had no returns for decades since.
So I think it is a simple indicator or heuristic to use but, if you use almost any valuation metric, you will sort of end up in the right galaxy, which is the way to think about valuation. It is nothing you are going to be measuring to the right of the decimal place. Just sticking to the investment side of things and process over outcome, you have made the point in the past that people should allocate to emerging markets if they are looking attractive on whatever valuation metric they want to choose.
Russia is one of those places that has gone through three or four different crises over the course of the last 20 years and there was always a lot of panic as valuations took a hit and went down to levels that, if you were brave enough and bought at those times, you would have made a compounded return that was very high in dollar terms. So having allocated capital to Russia in itself should not be seen as a mistake — despite what has happened over the last 11 days, given the probabilities and the balance of risk and reward, it could have been seen as a smart decision.
Do you think this is the right conclusion to draw or is it too soon to tell? MF: You know, I think the first lesson for any investor And I tend to run away from the portfolio managers that are not — and we have certainly had hundreds of those. And looking back historically, there are the cases where I would probably shake my head and say, look, either this process was poorly designed or there was a mistake I made, personally or emotionally.
As you analyse Russia as an example — you know, geopolitics is hard. There is no question there. And so, if you are looking to build a global portfolio — and we have funds that focus on emerging markets, as well as funds that focus on all stocks globally — the first thing to take into consideration, for me, is always: how do you hedge against the risk of any one stock, sector or country imploding?
And you can apply that lens to anything — I mean, stocks all the time go to zero. So you diversify by owning lots of stocks — never putting all your eggs in one basket.
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